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The Ozark Storms blog has fully moved to Facebook going forward.  Please visit https://www.facebook.com/OzarkStorms/ and "Like" the page for information going forward.

Severe Weather Possible This Afternoon and Evening 5/26/16

The Storm Prediction Center has the western half of MO and west in a slight risk for severe weather.  The Missouri Ozarks area is currently in a 2% risk for tornado potential.  The Springfield National Weather Service office lists the risks today as:

• Limited tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated lightning risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting and may not be all inclusive.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Ozark Storms Site

I am considering going 100% Facebook with OzarkStorms.com.  Ozark Storms does have a Facebook presence and it would streamline how I post things today. https://www.facebook.com/OzarkStorms/

So, the question is, do any of the visitors here not use Facebook?

Severe Weather Possible This Afternoon/Evening

May 9, 2016 - Intense Tornado Videos from Oklahoma

Here are a couple of very intense videos from the Oklahoma tornadoes in Katie and Elmore City on May 9, 2016.

Severe Weather Possible - 5/9/2016

UPDATED: 1:09PM

SPC Tornado Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center has all of MO and much of KS in a slight risk area for severe weather, while much of AR and eastern OK (and areas south) are in an enhanced risk area, with a higher risk.  The NWS office in Springfield notes that storms will be possible this evening and tonight, with the main threat being quarter sized hail and 65MPH wind gusts.  An tornado or two can not be ruled out.

The NWS in Springfield, MO lists the potential risks today as:

• Limited tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Significant lighting risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting and may not be all inclusive.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Possible Today - 4/26/2016

Graphic 1 - Severe Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center has much of the Midwest in a risk area for severe weather.  Most of this will be concentrated in the Southern Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma areas.  Much of Missouri is in an Enhanced risk area (See Graphic 1).  The National Weather Service in Springfield, MO notes that the main threat will be severe storms that develop late this afternoon and evening and move through the SW MO area into the overnight hours.  While all modes of severe weather are possible in Southwest Missouri and vicinity, the main tornadic risk will be along and west of the I-49 corridor, or along the MO/KS border and West (See Graphic 2).

The risks listed by the NWS for SW MO and SE KS are:

• Limited tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk



Graphic 2 - Tornadic Outlook

• Significant lighting risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting and may not be all inclusive.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Possible Tuesday Night Into Wednesday

Severe weather is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday in the Ozarks.  There is plenty of time to prepare for that possibility. You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting and may not be all inclusive.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Storms Expected Today 3/30/16

SGF NWS Weather Story

The Storm Prediction Center has much of the Midwest in a slight to enhanced risk for severe weather today.  This includes the possibility for some tornado development.  As of 6:47AM, the Springfield, MO area is in a 2% risk box for tornado development, however, Joplin, MO is in a 5% risk box (see second image below).

SPC Tornado Outlook as of 6:49AM

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Springfield, MO notes that strong to severe storms are expected by late morning, with the main threat being hail.  The second round is expected by late afternoon in SE KS, then will move into MO later in the evening.  Large hail, damaging wind and isolated tornadoes will be possible.  The full list of the risks today are:

• Limited tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Significant lightning risk
• Limited non-thunderstorm wind risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting and may not be all inclusive.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Possible Today - 03/23/16

Storm Prediction Center Categorical Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center has a good portion of the Midwest, including the Ozarks, in a slight risk box for severe weather.  This includes a chance for tornado development.  The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Springfield, MO lists the following threat potential:

• Limited tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Significant lightning risk
• Significant non-thunderstorm wind risk
• Significant fire weather risk

Storms are expected to fire later this afternoon west of Springfield and move through the area this evening.

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting and may not be all inclusive.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Threat - 12/26/15

Graphic A.  SPC Categorical Outlook 12/26/16

The Storm Prediction Center has much of Missouri in a marginal risk threat for severe weather today.  Many other areas are also included in this threat, as well as slight and enhanced risk areas (See graphic A).  This includes some risk for tornado development.  The MO Ozarks are within a 2% threat, but enough to at least be aware that there is a possibility (See graphic B).
The Springfield National Weather Service Forecast Office is expecting a significant flooding event to occur in the MO Ozarks today.  This flooding event could exceed the flooding of 2008 and 2011. In addition, The following risks are expected today:

• Limited tornado risk
• Limited hail risk
• Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Significant flooding risk
• Limited lightning risk



Graphic B.  SPC Tornado Outlook 12/26/15

• Limited non-thunderstorm wind risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting and may not be all inclusive.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Significant Flooding Event Likely

The NWS is forecasting 5 to 8 inches of rain in the area, and a significant flooding event is expected.  It is possible this could exceed the flooding in 2008 and 2011.  Please pay attention to flood prone areas, and avoid trying to cross flowing water.  Turn around, don't drown.  Please vising the Springfield, MO NWS site (or your assigned office) to stay informed.

Severe Weather Threat Today

SPC Convective Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center has a portion of the area in a slight risk box today. Additionally, at the time of this posting there is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until noon for a portion of the Ozarks. There is also an active Tornado Warning for Southeastern Dade and Northwestern Greene counties, expiring at 6:45AM.

The National Weather Service lists the potential threats as:

• Limited tornado risk
• Limited to Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated flooding risk
• Limited lightning risk
• Limited non-thunderstorm wind risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting and may not be all inclusive.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Risk Today: UPDATED

UPDATED 11:12AM

SPC Tornado Probability

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) shows all of MO in some risk for tornado development along with other areas.  In the picture to the right from the SPC, the areas in green are a 2% risk of tornado development within 25 miles of any point, and the brown area is a 5% risk of the same.
The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Springfield, MO lists the risks for today as:

• Limited tornado risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated lightning risk
• Significant non-thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Significant fire weather risk

SPC Sever Weather Risk

Please note the picture above is filtered on tornado risk only.  The picture on the lower right is overall severe weather risks today.

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Possible Wed 11/11/15

National Weather Service - Springfield, MO

The Storm Prediction Center has shifted the enhanced risk for severe weather on Wednesday 11/11/15 more to the  north into Central Missouri, and parts of IL and IA.  This leaves the SW MO area in a slight risk area for severe weather development.  This does NOT rule out the possibility of tornado development, but it does indicate a reduced threat.

The National Weather Service office in Springfield reports that storms should begin firing between 10AM and 12PM in SE KS and Western MO, with storms making it to the Springfield, MO area between 2PM and 4PM. Please plan accordingly.

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

SPC Convective Outlooks and "Risk"

When posting strong or severe storm updates, we will often note that the Storm Prediction Center has defined a "risk box" for severe weather.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is responsible for providing watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes within the United States, and is part of the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.  Warnings are issued by local NWS Forecast Offices.  A"risk box" is a term we use for an area of forecast by SPC for severe weather, and can be defined in five categories. Typically the language we use is something like "The Storm Prediction Center has the area in a slight risk box...".  These risks are color coded on a map, and are defined as:

Marginal - limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity

Slight - organized severe thunderstorms are expected, but usually in low coverage with varying levels of intensity

Enhanced - greater concentration of organized severe thunderstorms with varying levels of intensity.

Moderate - indicates potential for widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms, some of which may be intense. 

High - severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-track tornadoes, or a long-lived derecho system with hurricane-force wind gusts producing widespread damage. 

The SPC creates Convective Outlooks for Day 1 (today) through Day 8.  The accuracy and certainty is greater on Day 1, than on Day 3 for example.  Regardless, these products are great for awareness and preparation.

Severe Storm Potential for 11/5/2015

Storm Prediction Center - Tornado Risk

All of Missouri, Arkansas, most of Oklahoma and the Eastern half of Kansas have a marginal risk for severe weather today.  The National Weather Service in Springfield expects severe weather to move into Eastern Kansas later today. If instability in the atmosphere develops this afternoon, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including a limited risk for tornado development. While this isn't a severe weather outbreak situation, there is some possibility, so please remain aware of the potential.

The NWS in Springfield lists the risks as:

• Limited tornado risk
• Limited hail risk
• Limited thunderstorm wind risk damage
• Significant lighting risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Risk of Severe Weather Today

The Storm Prediction Center has areas of the Ozarks in a 2% tornado threat, along with other severe weather threats.  The National Weather Service office in Springfield lists the risks as:

• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated to significant lighting risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Potential Later Today

UPDATE 12:54PM:  SPC and NWS have updated the forecast and removed the potential for severe weather in most of these areas.

The Storm Prediction Center has portions of SW MO, SE KS, NE OK and NW AR in a slight risk for severe weather today. The National Weather Service in Springfield, MO notes that once the storms clear this morning, if the atmosphere recovers, the main concern will be the potential for severe weather later this afternoon.  The main risks will be:

• Limited tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated flooding risk
• Significant lightning risk
• Limited excessive heat risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Possible Tonight/Tomorrow

The Storm Prediction Center has much of MO and other areas to the SE in a slight risk zone for
severe weather.  This includes the possibility of isolated tornadoes.  A good portion of MO is in a 5% risk area for that development.  The National Weather Service in Springfield, MO lists the hazards as:

• Limited tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Significant flooding risk
• Significant lighting risk
• Limited excessive heat risk

Storms are expected to develop later this afternoon into the evening hours.  Severe weather is also possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)