Saturday, December 26, 2015

Severe Weather Threat - 12/26/15

Graphic A.  SPC Categorical Outlook 12/26/16
The Storm Prediction Center has much of Missouri in a marginal risk threat for severe weather today.  Many other areas are also included in this threat, as well as slight and enhanced risk areas (See graphic A).  This includes some risk for tornado development.  The MO Ozarks are within a 2% threat, but enough to at least be aware that there is a possibility (See graphic B).
The Springfield National Weather Service Forecast Office is expecting a significant flooding event to occur in the MO Ozarks today.  This flooding event could exceed the flooding of 2008 and 2011. In addition, The following risks are expected today:
  • Limited tornado risk
  • Limited hail risk
  • Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk
  • Significant flooding risk
  • Limited lightning risk
  • Graphic B.  SPC Tornado Outlook 12/26/15
  • Limited non-thunderstorm wind risk
You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting and may not be all inclusive.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.







Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook




Significant Flooding Event Likely

The NWS is forecasting 5 to 8 inches of rain in the area, and a significant flooding event is expected.  It is possible this could exceed the flooding in 2008 and 2011.  Please pay attention to flood prone areas, and avoid trying to cross flowing water.  Turn around, don't drown.  Please vising the Springfield, MO NWS site (or your assigned office) to stay informed.


Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Severe Weather Threat Today

SPC Convective Outlook
The Storm Prediction Center has a portion of the area in a slight risk box today. Additionally, at the time of this posting there is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until noon for a portion of the Ozarks. There is also an active Tornado Warning for Southeastern Dade and Northwestern Greene counties, expiring at 6:45AM.

The National Weather Service lists the potential threats as:
  • Limited tornado risk
  • Limited to Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
  • Elevated flooding risk
  • Limited lightning risk
  • Limited non-thunderstorm wind risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting and may not be all inclusive.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook


Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Severe Weather Risk Today: UPDATED

UPDATED 11:12AM

SPC Tornado Probability
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) shows all of MO in some risk for tornado development along with other areas.  In the picture to the right from the SPC, the areas in green are a 2% risk of tornado development within 25 miles of any point, and the brown area is a 5% risk of the same.
The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Springfield, MO lists the risks for today as:
  • Limited tornado risk
  • Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
  • Elevated lightning risk
  • Significant non-thunderstorm wind damage risk
  • Significant fire weather risk
SPC Sever Weather Risk
Please note the picture above is filtered on tornado risk only.  The picture on the lower right is overall severe weather risks today.

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook


Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Severe Weather Possible Wed 11/11/15

National Weather Service - Springfield, MO
The Storm Prediction Center has shifted the enhanced risk for severe weather on Wednesday 11/11/15 more to the  north into Central Missouri, and parts of IL and IA.  This leaves the SW MO area in a slight risk area for severe weather development.  This does NOT rule out the possibility of tornado development, but it does indicate a reduced threat.

The National Weather Service office in Springfield reports that storms should begin firing between 10AM and 12PM in SE KS and Western MO, with storms making it to the Springfield, MO area between 2PM and 4PM. Please plan accordingly.

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook



Monday, November 9, 2015

SPC Convective Outlooks and "Risk"

When posting strong or severe storm updates, we will often note that the Storm Prediction Center has defined a "risk box" for severe weather.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is responsible for providing watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes within the United States, and is part of the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.  Warnings are issued by local NWS Forecast Offices.  A"risk box" is a term we use for an area of forecast by SPC for severe weather, and can be defined in five categories. Typically the language we use is something like "The Storm Prediction Center has the area in a slight risk box...".  These risks are color coded on a map, and are defined as:

Marginal - limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity

Slight - organized severe thunderstorms are expected, but usually in low coverage with varying levels of intensity

Enhanced - greater concentration of organized severe thunderstorms with varying levels of intensity.

Moderate - indicates potential for widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms, some of which may be intense. 

High - severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-track tornadoes, or a long-lived derecho system with hurricane-force wind gusts producing widespread damage. 

The SPC creates Convective Outlooks for Day 1 (today) through Day 8.  The accuracy and certainty is greater on Day 1, than on Day 3 for example.  Regardless, these products are great for awareness and preparation.

Thursday, November 5, 2015

Severe Storm Potential for 11/5/2015

Storm Prediction Center - Tornado Risk
All of Missouri, Arkansas, most of Oklahoma and the Eastern half of Kansas have a marginal risk for severe weather today.  The National Weather Service in Springfield expects severe weather to move into Eastern Kansas later today. If instability in the atmosphere develops this afternoon, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including a limited risk for tornado development. While this isn't a severe weather outbreak situation, there is some possibility, so please remain aware of the potential.

The NWS in Springfield lists the risks as:
  • Limited tornado risk
  • Limited hail risk
  • Limited thunderstorm wind risk damage
  • Significant lighting risk
You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook