Strong to Severe Storms Later Today

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has SW MO and SE KS (as well as a very small portion of NE OK and NW AR) in a slight risk box for severe weather today. Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are expected to develop this afternoon and evening.

The National Weather Service in Springfield, MO lists the risk as follows:

• Limited tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated lightening risk

There is low confidence storms will develop this afternoon, but if they do, they will likely be strong to severe. This evening the confidence is higher that strong to severe storms will develop, with the main threat being hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts of 70MPH.

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Strong Storms Today and Tonight

The National Weather Service in Springfield is forecasting thunderstorm development later today and into tonight. Some storms may include the following risks:

• Limited tornado risk
• Limited hail risk
• Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated flooding risk
• Limited lightning risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Possible Today

The National Weather Service in Springfield notes that severe weather is possible today, but the probability is low. If severe weather develops, the following risks exist:

• Significant flooding risk
• Limited tornado risk
• Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Significant lighting risk
• Limited non thunderstorm wind risk

Periods of heavy rain are expected today and tonight, with an additional one to three inches today. Isolated severe storms with the above risks are possible, but due to limited instability the probability is low.

WATCH FOR FLOODING. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Possible Today - Flooding Likely Through Wed

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has most of MO, and half of AR, OK and KS in a slight risk box for severe weather. This includes a 5% risk of tornado development. Just for calibration sake, some areas are 2% today, and the moderate risk areas are at 10%. On outbreak days, that number can reach up in to the 30's or higher.

The National Weather Service in Springfield, MO lists today's severe weather risks as:

• Limited tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated flooding risk
• Significant lightning risk

The big weather story is the four to eight inches of rain our area will be seeing through Wednesday. Flooding is likely. Please don't try to drive through flooded roads. Turn around, don't drown.

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Tornado Warning Changes For Missouri And Kansas

Here is a great article from EarthSky.org about the upcoming changes to the tornado warning system in Missouri and Kansas. I tend to agree with the author, and others I've talked to, that I'm not sold that this will be a positive change. I feel like there is still enough ignorance about the difference between a watch and a warning, that three tiers of warnings may just confuse people more.

I agree a change is needed, the Joplin MO tornado proves that. Many people there flat out ignored the warning and the first siren, but took interest when the second tornado siren sounded. I feel that the biggest issue here is you can't care more about someone's safety than they do and affect it. I'm not so sure a "tornado warning" versus a "particularly dangerous situation tornado warning" is going to do any better reaching the target group.

I think my cynicism comes from the complacency a good percentage of the public has about severe weather, and their lack of accountability for personal safety. I hope I'm wrong, and this turns out to be a great improvement.

The bottom line is this: If there is a tornado warning for your area, there is a higher probability you will die if you don't do something to protect yourself. Also, it's not the tornado siren's job to keep you safe. It's your job to keep you safe. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you aren't doing enough to protect you and those around you.

Be safe.

Branson Tornado Path 3D Flyover Tour

Why Storm Spotters/Chasers Should Be CERT Trained

On March 12, 2006 it became very obvious to my chase/spot partner (Jeff Kerr) and I that we should train for post disaster assistance. I even noted it in our log from that day. I did go on to receive that training, and feel better prepared for having it.

This video from two chasers out of Oklahoma really drives that point home. There are many reasons to become CERT trained. But two the biggest are:

1. Without the proper training, you may become part of the problem. Getting yourself hurt or killed will only complicate the recovery efforts, and reduce the attention the victims need. Emergency personnel don't need a bigger problem.

2. If you do come across a victim, you are going to want to help them. You can hurt them worse if you are not trained.

I highly recommend CERT training for everyone, even if you don't find yourself entering disaster areas. There are many skills learned that will help protect you and your family. And some day, hopefully never, you may really wish that you had this training to help during the aftermath of something like the May 22, 2011 Joplin, MO EF-5 tornado.

If you live in the Christian County area, there is a CERT training happening on Friday

If you live in the Christian County, MO area, there is a CERT training coming up on Friday/Saturday April 13th and 14th. This is a two day training. Friday night is 6:30pm to 9:30pm and Saturday is 8am to 4pm. It will be held at James River Assembly. If you are interested in receiving this FREE training, please call 417.581.2126. Tell them Jeff @ OzarkStorms.com sent you.

Severe Weather - March 2, 2012

While the Eastern Ozarks are still under the slight risk category for severe weather, the news today is further east. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a HIGH risk for severe weather for much of Kentucky and parts of Tennessee and Indiana. They are calling for a significant tornado episode, including large long tracked tornadoes.

I can't stop the weather, but I can sure do my best to convince people to take personal accountability and be prepared. When it comes down to it, we are all responsible for our own safety. Skip one meal out and buy a weather radio if you don't have one.

Please keep the folks in the danger zone in your thoughts and prayers today...

Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Possible Late Tonight/Early Friday

UPDATED

The National Weather Service in Springfield has noted in their Hazardous Weather Outlook that severe weather is possible in the Ozarks late tonight into early Friday. This includes some risk for tornadoes, especially in far southern MO. The risks include:

• Limited Tornado Risk
• Limited Non-Thunderstorm Wind Risk
• Elevated Hail Risk
• Limited Thunderstorm Wind Risk
• Limited Lighting Risk

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has SW Mo in a 2% tornado probability risk. It's low, but worth noting.

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)