Severe Weather Risk Today: UPDATED

UPDATED 11:12AM

SPC Tornado Probability

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) shows all of MO in some risk for tornado development along with other areas.  In the picture to the right from the SPC, the areas in green are a 2% risk of tornado development within 25 miles of any point, and the brown area is a 5% risk of the same.
The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Springfield, MO lists the risks for today as:

• Limited tornado risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated lightning risk
• Significant non-thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Significant fire weather risk

SPC Sever Weather Risk

Please note the picture above is filtered on tornado risk only.  The picture on the lower right is overall severe weather risks today.

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Possible Wed 11/11/15

National Weather Service - Springfield, MO

The Storm Prediction Center has shifted the enhanced risk for severe weather on Wednesday 11/11/15 more to the  north into Central Missouri, and parts of IL and IA.  This leaves the SW MO area in a slight risk area for severe weather development.  This does NOT rule out the possibility of tornado development, but it does indicate a reduced threat.

The National Weather Service office in Springfield reports that storms should begin firing between 10AM and 12PM in SE KS and Western MO, with storms making it to the Springfield, MO area between 2PM and 4PM. Please plan accordingly.

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

SPC Convective Outlooks and "Risk"

When posting strong or severe storm updates, we will often note that the Storm Prediction Center has defined a "risk box" for severe weather.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is responsible for providing watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes within the United States, and is part of the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.  Warnings are issued by local NWS Forecast Offices.  A"risk box" is a term we use for an area of forecast by SPC for severe weather, and can be defined in five categories. Typically the language we use is something like "The Storm Prediction Center has the area in a slight risk box...".  These risks are color coded on a map, and are defined as:

Marginal - limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity

Slight - organized severe thunderstorms are expected, but usually in low coverage with varying levels of intensity

Enhanced - greater concentration of organized severe thunderstorms with varying levels of intensity.

Moderate - indicates potential for widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms, some of which may be intense. 

High - severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-track tornadoes, or a long-lived derecho system with hurricane-force wind gusts producing widespread damage. 

The SPC creates Convective Outlooks for Day 1 (today) through Day 8.  The accuracy and certainty is greater on Day 1, than on Day 3 for example.  Regardless, these products are great for awareness and preparation.

Severe Storm Potential for 11/5/2015

Storm Prediction Center - Tornado Risk

All of Missouri, Arkansas, most of Oklahoma and the Eastern half of Kansas have a marginal risk for severe weather today.  The National Weather Service in Springfield expects severe weather to move into Eastern Kansas later today. If instability in the atmosphere develops this afternoon, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including a limited risk for tornado development. While this isn't a severe weather outbreak situation, there is some possibility, so please remain aware of the potential.

The NWS in Springfield lists the risks as:

• Limited tornado risk
• Limited hail risk
• Limited thunderstorm wind risk damage
• Significant lighting risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Risk of Severe Weather Today

The Storm Prediction Center has areas of the Ozarks in a 2% tornado threat, along with other severe weather threats.  The National Weather Service office in Springfield lists the risks as:

• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated to significant lighting risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Potential Later Today

UPDATE 12:54PM:  SPC and NWS have updated the forecast and removed the potential for severe weather in most of these areas.

The Storm Prediction Center has portions of SW MO, SE KS, NE OK and NW AR in a slight risk for severe weather today. The National Weather Service in Springfield, MO notes that once the storms clear this morning, if the atmosphere recovers, the main concern will be the potential for severe weather later this afternoon.  The main risks will be:

• Limited tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated flooding risk
• Significant lightning risk
• Limited excessive heat risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Possible Tonight/Tomorrow

The Storm Prediction Center has much of MO and other areas to the SE in a slight risk zone for
severe weather.  This includes the possibility of isolated tornadoes.  A good portion of MO is in a 5% risk area for that development.  The National Weather Service in Springfield, MO lists the hazards as:

• Limited tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Significant flooding risk
• Significant lighting risk
• Limited excessive heat risk

Storms are expected to develop later this afternoon into the evening hours.  Severe weather is also possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts, as the information at OzarkStorms.com is only current at the time of posting.  Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)