Severe Weather...Without Warning? Not Usually.

The Tulsa Oktoberfest was affected by the severe weather yesterday, as 30+ people were injured when a tent collapsed in 60+ MPH winds. One is in critical condition, and six in serious condition. The responsibility of public safety falls directly on event coordinators when weather watches and warnings are issued. Ignoring them and assuming nothing will happen works out fine when nothing does. But when things do happen, that doesn't mean they are "caught off guard" because "it usually doesn't".

Reporting on the injured crowd at Tulsa's Oktoberfest, News Channel 8 says, Organizers say they knew about the weather forecasts and thought the winds and storm would pass. Rain and hail made the situation worse and came so quickly that no one had time to prepare." What I don't understand is how these two sentences can be put together.

1. There was a slight risk for severe weather forecasted 2 days before
   
2. There was a moderate risk for severe weather forcasted the day before
3. There was a moderate risk for severe weather all day the day it happened
   
4. There was a tornado watch from about 7:45am until 10pm
5. There was a thunderstorm warning issued at 7:08pm
6. The storm hit at 7:30pm

Now granted, most normal people wouldn't follow number 1 through 3. However, 4 and 5 are pretty blatant. There was plenty of time to prepare, and there was plenty of time to protect the public. The people that were there do hold some of the responsibility too, but that's a different rant.

October 17, 2007 - Severe WX

The good news is that things didn't get as bad as they could have on Thursday 10/17/07. The bad news is there were indeed tornadoes as predicted, and at least one that struck SW MO destroyed three homes and caused other damage to property. At the time of this writing, there aren't any reports of injuries in SW MO. Unfortunately the same can't be said for the Columbia area where two people were killed in a mobile home.

The spotter coverage was impressive last night. Michael Rains (K0RFI) did a great job with his first contact reports of the tornado near Mt. Vernon. He did a great job reporting factual information in a professional manner. There were many other spotters out in the field, strategically located during this widespread storm event. I was at home with the kids last night, and wasn't able to get out mobile until after 9:30 p.m. Fortunately that later line didn't put the smack down on us again.

KY3 has quite a bit of video footage and pictures of the event. Check it out.

Severe Storms Possible - October 17, 2007

A significant severe weather event is expected to develop on Wednesday, October 17th. This is a spring like setup, that will be capable of producing long lived tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a Moderate Risk box that borders on the east in the Springfield area.
At this time it's likely the system will reach the Springfield Metro area in the evening, but the night time conditions may not diminish the tornado threat. From the Day 2 Outlook: "STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD ACROSS MO/AR AND PERHAPS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG MIXING...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION MAY BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION SPREADS EWD."

Update: Conditions are coming together for this event to fire earlier than expected. A tornado watch has now been issued with Greene being on the eastern edge.



Be safe everyone. I'll update this post as the time draws closer.

Severe Storms Possible - October 2nd, 2007

As expected, severe storms are possible today. The Storm Prediction Center has issed a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10pm from areas in Central OK, all the way up through NW MO. My wife works tonight, so I'll be helping however I can from the house.

Be safe all.