Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Severe Storms Possible - October 17, 2007

A significant severe weather event is expected to develop on Wednesday, October 17th. This is a spring like setup, that will be capable of producing long lived tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a Moderate Risk box that borders on the east in the Springfield area.
At this time it's likely the system will reach the Springfield Metro area in the evening, but the night time conditions may not diminish the tornado threat. From the Day 2 Outlook: "STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD ACROSS MO/AR AND PERHAPS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG MIXING...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION MAY BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION SPREADS EWD."

Update: Conditions are coming together for this event to fire earlier than expected. A tornado watch has now been issued with Greene being on the eastern edge.



Be safe everyone. I'll update this post as the time draws closer.

4 comments:

Sniderman said...

The fact that we haven't flushed the low-level moisture (see low clouds out there right now)... and no North flow behind front crossing the MS river...

mmmm.... looks interesting for tomorrow.

Standing by.

Max said...

Definitely watching this system up in St. Louis as well. It seems that the brunt of it might be over the western side of the state with less expected here. I'm watching what is coming up from Little Rock right now but that has no where near the power of what is appear on radar in the eastern counties of KS.

Max...

JMo said...

Yes, it was kind of odd to see the risk boxes skip from W MO to NE IL. All the talk indicates things will get bad.

I'm stuck at home tonight, the wife is working. Had she been off, I probably would have taken today off and head west working my way back towards home later today.

--JMo

JMo said...

On the risk boxes, I meant prior to this morning. It was just kind of weird that it might jump from KS-MO-OK-AR four state area all the way to the Chicago area. Your area is in the moderate box now, or real close.