Winter Storm To Impact Ozarks

Okay folks, get ready...winter is here.

NIST Report on Joplin Tornado

Technical Investigation of the May 22, 2011, Tornado in Joplin MO

The above link will take you to a 429 page VERY detailed DRAFT of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) investigation of the Joplin MO tornado.  In it you will find details on emergency communications, building performance (St. Johns, Walmart, Home Depot and more), designated safe areas, etc.  It's a long read with a ton of information.

Abstract:

This is the final report of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) investigation of the May 22, 2011, tornado in Joplin, Missouri, conducted under the National Construction Safety Team Act. This report describes the wind field of the tornado and how the wind pressures and windborne debris damaged and destroyed thousands of buildings; the emergency communications before and during the tornado and how the public responded; the influence of tornado hazards and public response and building and designated shelter area performance on survival and injury; and areas of current building and emergency communications codes, standards and practices that warrant revision. Also described in this report is the means by which NIST reached its conclusions. NIST collected large numbers of documents, photographs, videos, and building plans; developed a computer model of the wind field of the tornado as it crossed the City of Joplin; analyzed the performance of a range of building types for life safety and functionality; interviewed many survivors of the tornado, developed an evidence-based explanation for decisions made and actions taken by the public in response to the tornado; and analyzed the factors affecting life safety outcomes. The report outlines 47 findings related to the May 22, 2011, Joplin tornado and concludes with a list of 16 recommendations for action in areas of improved measurement and characterization of tornado hazards, new methods for tornado resistant design of buildings, enhanced guidance for community tornado sheltering, and improved and standardized emergency communications.

What It Is Like Getting Hit By The Outer Edge Of An EF-4 Tornado ***Adult Language***

*****WARNING:  ADULT LANGUAGE*****

This is from the Washington, IL tornado on 11/17/13.  This family survived an EF-4 tornado.  It appears they were on the outer edge of this 170-190 MPG winded beast.  Adult language, so watch at your own discretion.  Prayers go out to my family and friends in the Pekin/Washington IL area.  I grew up in Pekin, before moving away when I was 15 years old.

How A Tornado Can Hit One House And Miss Another

This image posted by The Chicago Tribune from the November 17th Washington, IL tornado shows the unfortunate results of a farm house taking a direct hit.  But what is incredible is the spiral patterns in the field.  You can see that there are portions of the field that didn't get hit with the swirling funnel.  It easily demonstrates how one home could still be standing and another could be leveled.

Scattered Strong to Severe Storms Possible

Strong to severe storms are possible later today and tonight.  The Storm Prediction Center has much of SW MO, NE OK, NW AR and much of KS in a slight risk box for severe weather.  The National Weather Service in Springfield, MO lists the hazards as:

• Limited tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated flooding risk
• Significant lightning risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Storms Possible Later Today and Tonight

SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center has much of MO, KS, OK and AR in a slight risk box for severe weather, and a good chunk of KS in a moderate risk box.  The image to the right is the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Tornado Probability.  The National Weather Service in Springfield MO list the following hazards are possible, especially damaging winds, large hail and an isolated tornado:

• Limited tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated lightning risk
• Significant excessive heat risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Possible on Thursday 6/26

There is a possibility of strong to severe storms developing tomorrow.  We will post more information regarding this threat tomorrow, but wanted to give everyone a heads up.

Video Footage of EF-5 El Reno Tornado

Video footage captured during the El Reno, OK tornado on May 31, 2013. Apparently this was captured by employees and guests of Tempest Tours (storm chasing tour group).

Storm Chaser Locations During El Reno Tornado

This is a video showing the location of storm chasers combined with the estimated tornado damage path of the El Reno, OK tornado on 5/31/13.  This is only spotters who use Spotter Network to broadcast their position and tie that with ground truth reports, which means there were MANY more out there.  The Spotter Network reports are available to those interested, such as the National Weather Service, so they have this valuable ground truth information that radar can't see.

El Reno Tornado Now Largest On Record

The El Reno, OK tornado is now the widest tornado on record at 2.6 miles wide.  It is now rated EF-5 based on mobile Doppler radar readings, with winds up to 296 MPG.  Read more from The Washington Post.

UPDATED: Strong to Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon and Evening

UPDATED 11:34am

Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into the evening.  The Storm Prediction Center has most of MO and OK, SE KS and NW AR in a slight risk for severe weather, with SE KS, much of OK and extreme SW MO in a moderate risk box for severe weather.  The slight risk area is listed with a 5-10% chance of a tornado, with the moderate risk area showing 15%.

The Springfield NWS office notes that the most likely time for storms to impact the Ozarks is between 2pm and 10pm this evening.  The risks include:

• Elevated tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk (up to golf ball sized hail)
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk (up to 70MPH wind gusts)
• Elevated flooding risk
• Significant lightning risk
• Limited non-thunderstorm wind damage risk

Rainfall amounts are expected from 1 to 4 inches, so please pay attention to flooding possibilities.

NWS Web Briefing

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon and Evening

Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into the evening.  The Storm Prediction Center has most of MO and OK, SE KS and NW AR in a slight risk for severe weather, with SE KS, much of OK and extreme SW MO in a moderate risk box for severe weather.  The slight risk area is listed with a 5% chance of a tornado, with the moderate risk area showing 10%.

The Springfield NWS office notes that the most likely time for storms to impact the Ozarks is between 2pm and 10pm this evening.  The risks include:

• Elevated tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk (up to golf ball sized hail)
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk (up to 70MPH wind gusts)
• Elevated flooding risk
• Significant lightning risk
• Limited non-thunderstorm wind damage risk

Rainfall amounts are expected from 1 to 4 inches, so please pay attention to flooding possibilities.

NWS Web Briefing

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

UPDATED: Severe Weather Expected This Afternoon and Tonight

Tornado Watch until 9PM

Conditions have become more unstable, and the severe weather threat has increased for the Ozarks.  There is an active Tornado Watch until 9PM tonight that includes SW MO and surrounding areas.  The National Weather Service in Springfield now list today's risks as:

• Elevated tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Significant flooding risk
• Significant lightning risk

NWS Web Briefing

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Conditional Risk For Severe Weather Later Today and Tonight

If conditions provide atmospheric instability, then the possibility of severe weather is greater later this afternoon and tonight.  While there is a possibility of all modes of severe weather, the good news is that it appears that it will be limited in the Ozarks.

The Storm Prediction Center has most of MO, KS, OK and NW AR in a slight risk box for severe weather, and part of S KS and a good part of OK in a moderate risk box.  They list the tornado probability in much of the Ozarks at 5%, however, the Joplin area is in a 10% hatched area for stronger tornadoes.

The National Weather Service in Springfield, MO lists the threats as:

• Limited tornado risk
• Limited non thunderstorm wind risk
• Significant lightning risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Limited flooding risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Storms Expected Later Today

Once again, the Storm Prediction Center has SW MO, Extreme SE KS, NE OK and NW AR in a moderate risk box for severe weather.  The Springfield NWS lists the risks as:

• Elevated tornado risk
• Significant hail risk
• Significant thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated flooding risk
• Significant lightning risk

Storms are expected to develop across eastern KS and OK again later this afternoon and move across the Ozarks into the overnight hours.  Golf ball sized hail, damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH and tornadoes are possible.

***Joplin area folks, your weather alert radios may not function properly, please see the NWS URGENT statement regarding the over the air alerting system.***

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Strong Tornadoes Possible Today - Sunday 5/19/13

The Storm Prediction Center has Western Mo, Eastern KS and NE OK in a moderate risk box for severe weather today (the rest of the area is in a slight risk box).  Much of the area is in a 15% probability box for a tornado.  There is a possibility this will include STRONG tornadoes.  You still have time time to prepare.  At this time, the estimated timing for these storms will be 5pm for the SE KS/Joplin MO area, and between 9pm and midnight for the Springfield, MO area.

The Springfield NWS lists the threats as:

• Elevated tornado risk
• Significant hail risk
• Significant thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Limited flooding risk
• Significant lightning risk
• Limited non-thunderstorm wind risk
• Limited fog risk

This could be our first big spring storm system, and it will continue through Monday.  Please be alert and prepared.  Run through your safety plan so you can act on it with short notice.

***Joplin area folks, your weather alert radios may not function properly, please see the NWS URGENT statement regarding the over the air alerting system.***

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Prepare For Severe Weather Now

The central US may see the first "big" round of Spring severe weather later this week.  If you do not own a NOAA All Hazards (Weather Alert) Radio, please strongly consider it.  If you are going to buy one, get one that lets you filter out unwanted warnings.  If you don't, you'll get tired of Flood Watch, Flood Warning, Flash Flood Watch, Flash Flood Warning, etc., and you will shut it off.  Invest the extra $20 for a radio that will let you filter down to YOUR county and the warnings you care about.

Here is a detailed posting about what you should look for.

Please consider this, and don't wait until the severe weather is here.  Prepare now so you can stress less later.  

10 Year Anniversary of May 4, 2003 Outbreak

Today is the 10 year anniversary of the May 4, 2003 tornado outbreak.  Here is the Storm Prediction Center storm report from that day.  Here is the Springfield National Weather Service event review.  I also posted a blog post about that day, which is really what got me back into storm spotting after I had taken a break from it for a while.  Below is a video from Tom Trtan and Nick Penka as one of the large tornadoes moved towards Clever and Battlefield.  I know that there is cold weather and snow right now, but please remember it is prime storm season. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should.

Severe Weather Likely Today/Tornado Watch

There is currently a Tornado Watch in effect until 10pm for Eastern KS and most of MO.  This watch calls for several intense tornadoes.

UPDATED:  15:40
The Storm Prediction Center has all of the Ozarks in a slight risk box for severe weather today, with much of MO, SE KS and a good portion of OK in a MODERATE risk box for severe weather.  What does that mean?  Much of the area has at least a 10% chance of a tornado.  The Joplin and Springfield  areas on up across the center portion of MO and NE OK are in the 10% area and SE KS and much of OK in the 15% chance area.  Storms may come in two waves today.  Let's hope conditions change, and you prepared for nothing.

The National Weather Service office in Springfield MO states that storms forming this afternoon could bring large hail (half dollar), frequent lightning and damaging winds.  Later this afternoon supercell thunderstorm development will be possible.  Golfball sized hail, damaging winds and possible tornado development are all possible.  The risks specifically listed are:

• Elevated tornado risk
• Significant hail risk
• Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated flooding risk
• Significant lightning risk
• Limited non-thunderstorm wind damage risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Severe Weather Expected - Wednesday 4/17/13

Wednesday is expected to bring severe weather with the possibility of tornadoes.  Please take the time to prepare for Spring weather...

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Evening

The Storm Prediction Center has much of MO, KS and OK in a slight risk box for severe weather.  The Springfield National Weather Service office lists the threats in SW MO and SE KS as follows:

• Limited Tornado Risk
• Elevated Hail Risk
• Elevated Thunderstorm Wind Damage Risk
• Limited Flooding Risk
• Significant Lightning Risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Snow/Sleet/Ice Expected Tonight and Tomorrow

Springfield NWS Graphic

Many modes of winter precipitation are expected tonight and tomorrow.  The National Weather Service has a web briefing on the event for more information.  In a nutshell, sleet and snow are expected tonight and overnight, with freezing rain coming down around daybreak on Thursday.
Prepare now, and be safe.

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

February 10, 2013 Hattiesburg MS EF-4 Tornado Event

Photo by Basehunters/TVNWeather.com

Here is the latest National Weather Service review of the EF-4 tornado that devastated Hattiesburg, MS  and the other tornadoes in the area on February 10, 2013.  I know a family from Hattiesburg who had damage at their home, but most importantly, everyone was okay.  The fact that no one was killed during this tornado, and the others that occurred that day, is an amazing testament to all weather and news related organizations, as well as spotters and chases, who prepared folks for the threat of severe weather, and warned them when it was happening.

Very Intense Video From Hattiesburg, MS EF-4 Tornado on 2/10/13

Severe Storms Possible Today

Tornado Watch until 3pm

Severe storms are possible this morning and later today in the Ozarks.  The Storm Prediction Center has the area listed in a slight risk box for severe weather, including the possibility for tornadoes.  The Springfield National Weather Service lists the risk today as:

• Elevated tornado risk
• Elevated hail risk
• Significant thunderstorm wind damage risk
• Elevated lightning risk
• Limited non thunderstorm wind risk

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Strong to Severe Storms Overnight and Tuesday

The Storm Prediction Center has Southern MO, SE KS, Eastern OK and Arkansas in a slight risk box, and the SE portion of the risk area in Arkansas and beyond is a moderate risk.  This is for overnight tonight and tomorrow.  The National Weather Service office in Springfield, MO lists the hazards as:

• Limited tornado risk
• Limited thunderstorm wind damage
• Limited lightning risk
• Limited non-thunderstorm wind damage

These risk are for the Day 1 outlook.  There is a good chance the Tuesday morning outlook will contain stronger language.  To be clear, for SW MO there will be a risk just after midnight tonight or so, then a bigger risk Tuesday in the late morning hours or noon.  

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Tornadoes Possible Tuesday 1/29/13

The National Weather Service in Springfield, MO and the Storm Prediction Center are both briefing the public to prepare for severe weather on Tuesday, including tornadoes.  This time of year, this could change either way.  But at this time, this is the forecast, and there is the possibility the risk will go up as Tuesday gets closer.

You should stay tuned to local weather forecasts. Make sure your NOAA All Hazards Radio is on and backed up by battery. If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.

Springfield, MO NWS - Hazardous Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Today)

Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlook (Tomorrow)

Video screen capture of lightning lit tornado
in Republic, MO.  January 7, 2008.

Five years ago today was one of the worst tornado outbreaks I've experienced, and one of the worst is SW MO, especially in the sheer number of tornadoes.  The National Weather Service event review lists "at least" 33 tornadoes.  I have it from a good source that due to the 75+ MPH straight line winds that came through at the end of the event, damage paths were contaminated and that there were very likely even more tornadoes.  In fact, I have evidence of opposing winds at the Cox Rd. and Plainview Rd. intersection in SW Springfield.  I posted a few blog posts about that evening (see below), including a chase log (Jeff Kerr and I).  There, you will find quite a bit of detail, some video and some pictures, including the evidence of a small tornado that was not in the official count.

Please remember that tornadoes can happen any time of the year, and especially in the Spring, which isn't that far away.  If you don't already own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, please get one soon.

Initial post indicating isolated tornadoes...boy was that forecast conservative!

Event overview with link to chase log.

Event update.

Hard safety lesson learned...a post describing an error in judgement.

Excellent "hook echo" example from Republic, MO tornado.

Please Prepare And Be Aware...Let's Break The Record

The longest stretch of days without a tornado fatality dates back to February 24, 1987 at 197 days.  The most recent tornado fatality on record today is June 24, 2012, which means we are currently at 192 days without a tornado fatality.  Currently the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting no severe weather in the next 8 days.

Folks, this is a record we want to break, and it looks like we are going to do it.  There were approximately 27 tornadoes on Christmas day (2012) with no reported fatalities.  Bravo to our National Weather Services offices and local media!  I feel confident that "situational awareness" is the reason lives were saved on Christmas day, and why we are on track to beat this record.

Please prepare and be aware... Spring is coming.  If you don't own a NOAA All Hazards Radio, you should. Click the link for a previous blog post on selecting one.